Per Reuters, on June 25, 2026, Bain & Company reported early signs of recovery in the personal luxury goods market in the second quarter, despite the Middle East conflict, and forecast global sales growth of 2% to 4% for 2026. The firm credits stronger-than-expected growth in the United States for pulling the market out of two stagnant years.
A recovery for the industry — but for whom?
The uncomfortable part of Bain's findings, as Reuters framed them, is who is doing the recovering. Earlier Bain work, presented in November 2025, noted that aggressive price increases had left many shoppers feeling priced out and, in the firm's word, betrayed — and this mid-year update shows growth concentrated at the top of the market. Wealthy American clients, boosted by the tech-driven economy, are buying more; the aspirational customer who once bought her first luxury bag at 28 is buying later, less, or secondhand. Per Bain's January forecast, China's personal luxury market, which shrank 3–5% in 2025, was expected to return only to modest growth in 2026.
For the brands, a 2–4% growth year after two flat ones is a relief, not a boom. For the shopper, it means the industry still needs you — just less than it used to.
What it changes for your wardrobe and budget
Practical read: do not expect meaningful price cuts from the big houses, because their math now works without the middle customer. What you can expect is a wider, better-stocked resale and outlet ecosystem — the aspirational shoppers who exited full-price retail are feeding the secondhand market with recent-season pieces, and platforms are competing on price. If you want current-designer quality at 40–60% below retail, 2026's resale shelves are the best-supplied in years.
The detail most coverage skipped: Bain's growth forecast covers personal luxury goods — handbags, ready-to-wear, watches, jewelry — and the jewelry category is doing the heaviest lifting within it, per Bain's sector breakdowns. If you are choosing between a designer bag and fine jewelry this year, the industry's own numbers suggest jewelry is holding value and demand better, which matters for resale later.
For more context, read LVMH's Second Quarter Rose 3% — and America Is Carrying the Group.
For more context, read lvmh.
For more context, read luxury market us.